What The Election Tells Us About Our Townships

Jeff Green | Oct 26, 2022

There were distinct dynamics in each of the townships that we covered during the municipal election campaign this fall.

They were apparent in candidate interviews and particularly apparent at the all-candidates meetings.

And the election results bore that out.

In general, as with most elections, incumbents did rather well this week. Most voters make a first decision when deciding how to vote when there is someone on the ballot who is running for re-election ‘Am I happy with the way the township is running, and with that politician’s performance’. If there is a yes to those questions, people are likely to want to re-elect, even before looking at the challengers.

In this election, that appears to have been the dynamic in South Frontenac, where every incumbent who was running was re-elected. There will be three new members of council, however, because of retirements and the fact that one incumbent councillor, Alan Revill, ran, and lost the race for Mayor.

Although Mayor Ron Vandewal was aided by vote splitting among those who did not support him, the 47% vote share that he received in a three-person race is a pretty strong margin. Thus suggests that although it could have been a closer race if only 2 people were running, he would still have been re-elected.

In Central Frontenac, there was a lot of upheaval.

In three separate districts, incumbents were replaced by new candidates, suggesting that the electorate is not satisfied with the way the township is progressing. And the two incumbents who were returned, Nickie Gowdy in Hinchinbrook and Cindy Kelsey in Kennebec, shared two things. They both campaigned for change, and they are both women. the gender factor may not be a coincidence, as women made up 25% of the candidates in Central Frontenac (4 out of 16) and every one of those women was elected. The result is there are 4 women out of 8 councillors in Central Frontenac, with the gender balance being tipped to 5-4 by Mayor Frances Smith.

And during the campaign, some of the strongest anti-status quo candidate who ran were men, suggesting the gender factor may have been something that was relevant to voters,

In North Frontenac, Gerry Lichty ran a very strong campaign, focussed on visiting as many voters as possible, which may have been a factor. And although Ron Higgins has been a very active, and visible, Mayor for 8 years, he was acclaimed in 2018, and there has always been a lingering question about how popular he was with the electorate, and with his own council. Apart from the Mayor’s race there was quite a bit of volatility in North Frontenac, where a newcomer, Roy Huetl received the most votes of any council candidate in any ward, and Vernon Hermer, an incumbent, went down to defeat.

And in Ward 1, Stephanie Regent, another newcomer, received the most votes, but Wayne Good was also re-elected for a 5th term.

In the end, it is hard to see any trends in North Frontenac. Most of the incumbents did very well, but two of them, Vernon Hermer and Ron Higgins, who no one would ever accuse of being allies, went down to defeat, both pretty convincingly. And of the council candidates, the two new members both won their districts outright.

In Addington Highlands, Marlean Mclean was a controversial candidate for Reeve. She openly challenged Reeve Hogg over his age, and questioned how the township reponds to the needs of its residents. In Social Media and at all candidates meetings she faced unusually vigorous challenges from members of the public, particularly over her decision to run for Reeve withough ever serving on Council. Yet she did pretty well in the vote, not well enough to make it a close race, but 1/3 of the total vote is significant for a protest candidate in an township where changes to the makeup of council are rare. Indeed, while one incumbent was defeated, David Miles in ward 2, it was by a former Reeve, Ken Hook.

The vote differential between Kirby Thompson and Royce Rosenblath in ward 1 was even more narrow than it was in 2018, this time 9 votes separated them. I believe it was a 35 vote differential in 2018 so Royce made gains on Kirby, just not enough.

The largest impact of election night could be to Frontenac County Council, where at least 5 and likely 6 of the council positions will be filled by new people. Mayors Smith and Vandewal will be serving their third terms, but both of Frontenac Islands Councillors will be new, the second South Frontenac and Central Frontenac Councillors will be new, and Gerry Lichty will be new from North Frontenac. Gerry Martin, who is on the current County Council from North Frontenac, indicated before the election that he was not planning to put his name forward for the second North Frontenac spot, and if he follows through on that there will be 6 new people on the 8 person council when the inaugural Frontenac County meeting is held on November 30.

The turnout was very close to the same in all four townships, the lowest was 33.3% in Central Frontenac (with no vote for Mayor) and the highest was 35.7% in South Frontenac. But given that all four townships have a significant number of seasonal residents, ranging from a 33% in South Frontenac to 80% in North Frontenac, and many seasonal residents are disconnected from local politics, it would be interesting to know what percentage of permanent residents take the time to vote in municipal elections. It would not surprise me if the turnout among permanent residents approaches 50%, which is not low when compared to the rest of the province.