The Provincial Election That Ground To a Halt

Jeff Green | Jun 01, 2022

Everything about the provincial election seems to have been done according to a plan that may have been drawn up in Progressive Conservative Party Headquarters.

Any potential controversy over the decision to end COVID mandates in the midst of the widespread 6th wave of the virus, did not materialise. The infection did indeed skyrocket in April and early May, but the hospitalisation and death rates did not get higher than what Ontarians have learned to accept, and on the campaign trail people seem to be absolutely uninterested in talking about COVID at all.

One candidate, who went door to door in many corners of the vast Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston riding told me that the only COVID related topic that people have been talking about, was the state of the long term care system, which was laid bare early in the pandemic.

It seems that only the Ontario and New Blue, two upstart parties challenging the ruling PCs from the right, are particularly concerned about the way COVID was handled by the provincial government, taking an anti-restriction, vaccine skeptical stance that will certainly appeal to some voters, and we will see how many when the votes are counted tonight.

Province-wide polling has the two parties lumped in with some even smaller parties, much to their chagrin, to make up a 6% voting share. Since most of those votes would be coming at the expense of the ruling Conservative Party, they could be significant. However, there is another factor, the split on the left of the PCs, that seems to have compensated the PCs for those lost votes.

Neither the Liberal nor New Democratic parties have been able to create enough momentum to be able to make a credible argument to supporters of the other party, or the Green Party, that they should vote strategically to prevent their common enemy from forming a majority government.

Not too long ago, this all seemed very unlikely. The governing PC’s first year in power was a train wreck. Premier Ford announced sweeping changes to various departments that were not thought out, and ended up backing down repeatedly. They were just starting to get their agenda organised when the pandemic hit. Their inconsistent response hasn’t won them legions of fans, but with no strong leader emerging to oppose them, polls indicate they have retained about 85% of the voters who supported them in 2018.

And all they really need is 35% of the vote to win 100% of the power in Ontario.

The local campaign has also been quiet, even with a talented slate of candidates who have campaigned as hard as they could.

There were only two in-person all candidate meetings in the riding, in Verona and Sharbot Lake. Progressive Conservative candidate John Jordan missed both of them, as did New Blue candidate Marcin Lezandowski. Attendance was spotty at both events, more so in Sharbot Lake.

The questions did not necessarily reflect the so-called “ballot box issues” issues that sway voters' intentions, but they reflected the private concerns of the people asking them. For every question about healthcare and cost of living, there were questions about the sex-ed curriculum and COVID lockdowns.

There were no real fireworks at the meetings, or in the local or provincial campaign at all.

And the election doldrums have even hit Elections Ontario.

When the voter information cards arrived in the mail, they did not even list the advanced polling locations in Frontenac County, leaving 35% of the voters with an extra impediment to exercising their right to vote.

All in all, I expect the voter turnout to be pretty dismal this time around.