4th wave will hit KFL&A – Dr. Hugh Guan

Jeff Green | Sep 08, 2021

In late July, the interim medical officer of health for Kingston Frontenac Lennox and Addington, Dr. Hugh Guan, ceased holding weekly media briefings about COVID-19.

The local caseload was low and the vaccine rollout was proceeding steadily, if slowly.

A month later, the briefings are back, on a bi-weekly basis for now.

The reason for the resumption, Dr. Guan said last week, is to inform the public, specifically those who have not been vaccinated as of yet, about the efficacy, safety and availability of COVID-19 vaccines.

Also, the local caseload, although still low, is on the rise.

The active case load in the region as of Labour Day Monday, (September 6) was 18. The weekly caseload was 7 per 100,000, which would put KFLAPH in the green zone under the former provincial colour coded model, and there were no local patients in hospital due to COVID.

“We are still using the colour model as a tool to gauge where we are locally,” Dr. Guan said, “even though the province has switched to a model based on the stages of re-opening.”

Even though the local rate remains low, and as of Monday there were no active cases among Frontenac County residents, Dr. Guan said that the 4th wave of the virus will certainly have an impact in the region.

“We should not see the numbers that they are seeing in some of the hot spots like Toronto and Peel Region,” he said, “but it is almost certain, very likely, that the 4th wave will hit us by October.”

An uptick in vaccinations in KFLAPH came about late last week when the vaccine passport program was announced by Premier Doug Ford.

KFLAPH is now very close to 85% of eligible residents for a first dose, and is close to 80% with two doses.

But the target of 90% of KFL&A residents receiving both doses, that Dr. Guan has identified as an “aspirational goal” in order to mitigate against the Delta variant and keep the 4th wave at bay, remains just that.

While the 85% first dose and 80% fully vaccinated goals will be reached within a couple of weeks, if current vaccination trends continue it will be close to the end of the year before 90% of KFLAPH residents are fully vaccinated.

And keeping at the current pace is becoming more and more difficult for Public Health and their partners.

This despite ongoing efforts to reach people in unorthodox venues. Over the weekend, clinics were held at the farmers market in Northbrook, the garlic festival in Verona and even Fantasy in Forest near Perth Road.