This time seems different, for what it is worth

Jeff Green | Oct 08, 2015

It would be a mistake to take the pulse of an election campaign, particularly one in a geographically diverse riding such as the new Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston riding, based on the tenor of a single meeting held in one of its corners.

The riding is actually even larger, in a sense, than its wide boundaries would indicate. There is no community connection between Sydenham and Almonte, for example. Sydenham connects to Kingston, Toronto, Leeds Grenville, Lennox and Addington Counties, the 401 and Lake Ontario. Almonte connects to Ottawa, Montreal, Renfrew County, the Ottawa River and the 417. There is little or no overlap and if you ask people in Sydenham where Almonte is or vice versa you might as well be asking them where Pointe-au-Pic is.

So, you can't extrapolate to the entire riding from a meeting in Sydenham.

As well, in the case of last night's all-candidates’ meeting in Sydenham, the Liberal Party Association pulled in their supporters in large numbers.

Still, the meeting brought to mind the first federal all-candidates’ meeting that the Frontenac News organized in Sydenham, which was 11 years ago.

That election was also the first one being contested in a new riding, Lanark, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington, and it featured incumbents from two former ridings. Larry McCormick was running for the Liberals and Scott Reid for the Conservatives. Even though Sydenham was a part McCormick's old riding, and he lived in nearby Camden East, where his family ran a store for generations, he had few friends in the hall that night.

The audience pummeled him repeatedly over the Liberal Party's record, scandals and failed policies after 11 years in power. By the end of the evening it was clear that he was going to lose the election.

Last night in Sydenham it was Scott Reid who was under attack, to the point where near the end of the meeting one of his opponents, John Fenik of the NDP, chastised the audience for cat-calling his opponent.

(As an aside I think politics is a rough and tumble game and an experienced politician such as Scott Reid can handle that sort of thing)

I did not come out of last evening thinking that Scott Reid is about to lose this election, or even that he will take fewer votes in South Frontenac than the Liberals or NDP. There were circumstances that were too specific to the event itself to go that far. But what I did come out of it thinking is that even with their savvy campaign strategies, and the growing tendency of the Liberal and NDP leaders to attack each other, such that vote splitting will be an issue in this campaign, the Conservative party has enough baggage after 10 years that a majority for them is very unlikely. Even if they win the most seats, they will not be in a position to govern unless they are only 10 or so seats short of a majority and that is also unlikely at this point.

The Liberals and NDP will have to work something out between themselves, and will have look to Conservative members from time to time to support certain initiatives.

Even Scott Reid talked last night, for the first time that I have heard, about the possibility of serving on the opposition benches or in a hung parliament after October 19. He said that his ability to work with the other parties would make him a valuable asset to the riding, and the country.

His stand on democratic reform, favoring ranked voting over either the current system or the mixed-member system, is realistic and defensible.

He would make a good opposition MP. He might end up being one.

(Note - this article was corrected on October 6)