Yellow 'zoned out'

Jeff Green | Nov 25, 2020

Kingston Frontenac Public Health has designated the entire region as a COVID-19 yellow zone as of Monday, November 23rd.

On the four COVID-19 zones, as have been designated by the Province of Ontario, yellow is the second least restrictive, after green. It is followed by orange and red, and there is also a little talked about gray or lockdown zone.

According to Ontario.ca, regions are placed in those zones based on two main criteria, the number of active cases per 100,000 population that have been reported in the preceding 7 days, and the percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive.

A region goes from green to yellow when the number of cases in the preceding 7 days is between 10 and 24.9, and the percentage of positive tests is between 0.5% and 1.2%.

A week before we went into yellow, on November 16, the 7-day case rate in Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington (KFL&A) was 16.9 and the testing positivity rate was 0.87%. The region should have been in the yellow zone at that time. Of local interest, the sub-region of Frontenac County would not have been in the yellow zone at the time. In fact, the numbers in Frontenac and Lennox and Addington were 0 cases and 0% positivity, but sub-regions are not considered when determining COVID-19 zones. Kingston is the driver for the entire region.

On the 16th, Kieran Moore, the medical officer of health for KFL&A was asked why KFL&A was still in the green, and he said that the designation is now being done provincially and there is a time lag because of the way the province makes its determination.

But, he said, that by the end of the week, KFL&A would be in the yellow zone, and added that “we fully expect more transmission this week,” and said

However, in the week that followed, transmission of the virus has not followed the expected pattern. It has dropped.

By Friday, November 20, the 7-day case rate in KFL&A was down to 6.1 per 100,000 and the test positivity rate was down to 0.48%. We are back in the Green zone, based on the numbers.

It therefore seemed more than a bit counter-intuitive when KFLAPH announced on Monday (Nov. 23), that the KFL&A region has been placed in the Yellow zone. Later on Monday, when the weekend statistics were added to the COVID-19 dashboard on the KLAPH site, the change from green to yellow took on a degree of absurdity.

The 7-day average in KFL&A had dropped to 1.9, and the positivity rate had dropped to 0.18%. Yet, at the top of the page, the yellow sticker was lit up, for the first time since the Binh’s nails outbreak in late June.

The designation in June done locally, and was reversed locally when the numbers dropped. This time it is under provincial control, and it will not be changed back to Green, no matter what the local numbers are, for 28 days.

The implications of the switch from Green to Yellow are not a significant as a move to Orange or Red, but some sensitive businesses in Kingston, already reeling from 2020, are facing restrictions they cannot afford, at a time when the case load is already dropping.

The impacts are not that serious for Frontenac County businesses and meeting places because of the small scale that most restaurants and churches operate in our communities operate under. Things like limitations to 6 people at restaurant tables, bar and restaurant closing at 11pm, and even a limit of 30% capacity at churches and other public space, do not have a major impact in a rural area like ours.

But by setting up a yellow zone designation when the numbers that the province itself has established do not warrant it, the credibility of the government is compromised.

At a time when people are tired after 8 months of COVID restrictions and are now facing a compromised holiday season, the credibility of the messaging coming from government and public health officials is more important than ever.

We are fortunate that the province is taking a regional approach to COVID-19 related restrictions now, so we are able to conduct our lives under the new-normal while the people in the hotspots such as Toronto and Peel region.

The problem with the yellow zone designation, even though its impact will be minimal, is two-fold. For those in our communities who are living in abject fear of COVID-19, it creates an un-necessary sense that things are getting worse in our region, when they really aren’t.

And for those in our community and elsewhere who think that the entire COVID-19 response has been over-blown and would like to see all restrictions dropped, it is ammunition for their cause.