Vegas Math

Jeff Dubois | Oct 28, 2020

A longtime acquaintance of mine once quipped that "politicians are like diapers.  They should be changed often, and for the same reason."  There's an awful stench in Lanark - Frontenac - Kingston that will only be remedied if the baby, and the bathwater purporting to represent this region, are dispatched posthaste.

Amidst a coven of anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, ne’er-do-wells and Tory party rejects, Randy Hillier's recent protest railed against the Ford government asserting that Ontario's COVID restrictions are authoritarian and unconstitutional.  Hillier's belief, that the municipality's reluctance to lay charges with respect to the illegal 'gathering' is proof that the law is unenforceable.  His let god strike me dead with lightning if I'm wrong rationale fails to recognize that authorities are reluctant to intervene because it unnecessarily places officers at risk and, perhaps more importantly, that this sorry lot of rebels without a cause deserve no credit or recognition.

What I found most disturbing, however, was Hillier's assertion that COVID poses no substantial threat to our society as he pontificated to the unwashed masses.  In his introductory speech, as posted on social media on 22 October 2020, Hillier stated that "we have hard data and evidence ... Here's a fact:  More than 99% of the people are not at risk of COVID... that's a fact.  ... and we know even that less than 1% who are at risk, 99% will recover or not have any symptoms at all."

As I get out my abacus and consider Hillier's "hard data", I find it impossible to reconcile the logic of his Vegas math.  As I consider Canada's population of roughly 37.5 million, if I follow Hillier's 1% of 1% bouncing ball, by pandemic's end, less than 3750 would not recover.  Canada's current death toll, as of the time stamp on this missive, stands at 9922.

If Hillier truly wants to serve the public, perhaps he should contact 6072 people to let them know they're not really dead.

Jeff Dubois