Odd Year For Real Estate - But Sales Are Steady Year Over Year

Dawn Morden - Sales Representative EXP Realty | Sep 11, 2025

The market has been a little bit confounding this year. Economic uncertainty from tariffs created an uneasiness and consequently many buyers were holding off from purchasing. Price reductions have been commonplace. The market has seemed slow more often than not. And at the same time, sellers have received multiple offers- sometimes on a newly listed property but also sometimes a month or two into the listing period, which isn’t unusual as a result of price decreases, but that’s not exclusively the case this year. Buyers who had been looking and found the place they wanted but were holding off to see what happened with the economy, or hoping for a price decrease spontaneously came out of the woodwork when someone else put an offer on that property. These pressurized situations materialized even when not much else was happening. So has the market been slow or not, what’s actually been going on with the market.

There are two standard measures of the market. Market data gathered from the MLS and the housing price index (hpi). The hpi is calculated monthly by the Canadian Real Estate Association. It analyses the value of an average home, called a benchmark home, in each township. The hpi is also based on information collected from the MLS.

Market data shows that overall numbers so far this year are not that different from last year. 247 homes have sold (compared to 243 last year). 87 of those were waterfront (compared to 86 last year). That’s very close. The average sale price this year is $633,000, a little lower but also still fairly close to last year’s $673,000. The average percent of asking price paid for homes has been 96% this year, and was 95% last year. Homes have taken a bit longer on average to sell, 54 days this year; 44 days last year.

Although market data shows a very similar market to last year, it hasn’t felt that way- but timing has been different this year. The market usually follows a seasonal cycle. A slow start to the year picks up into a busy spring market, stalls for the summer, and starts to pick up again for the fall market- often the busiest time of the year. The market didn’t do that this year. There was no slow start. The first quarter was very active with twice as many sales in North and Central Frontenac as last year, and nearly the same in South Frontenac. 31 sales in total, compared to 18 last year. Prices increased. The spring market picked up, but only a little, and certainly not as much as expected with such a hot start to the year. 113 homes sold compared to 124 last year. Fewer sales led to price reductions towards the end of spring, which spurred momentum for a very busy July where sales increased instead of dropping off as usual. 49 homes sold in June, and 56 during July (last year 59 in June, and 39 in July) and prices held steady. But that changed in August when the summer lull set in, heavier than usual. Only 47 homes sold compared to 63 last August. More price decreases happened in August in attempt to entice buyers and kick start the fall market. For many sellers who listed their homes early in the year, this was the second or third round of price decreases. The many slow downs and surges this year haven’t occurred in line with the usual seasonal cycle and changed the rhythm of the market.

The second measure of the market, the hpi, has a different story to tell than the data... although in the end it’s likely not going to be so different. Since January, benchmark home values have increased by $89,000 in Central Frontenac, $96,000 in North, and by only $800 in South Frontenac. This begs the question- why such drastic changes in Central and North, and almost none in South?

South Frontenac has a much more stable market. Demographics are different. There’s a larger population with a higher proportion of year round vs seasonal residents and a greater influx of people moving into the area. This creates a steady demand for the market that helps prevent prices from falling too far and too fast. South Frontenac has more rentals available than the other townships, and it’s proximity to larger city centres, and to Central Frontenac, provide other options for lifestyle and housing, which helps prevent prices from climbing too fast. Central and North Frontenac are smaller markets with only a handful of sales each month. Data that may not necessarily be statistically significant carry greater weight and so numbers tend to show wider swings. The larger South Frontenac market produces much more data and the volatility of any outliers tends to be smoothed out. Market composition and behaviour is quite different between Central and North, and South Frontenac.

All three townships experienced a busy first quarter with rising prices. Prices in the smaller Central and North Frontenac markets changed much more drastically, and benchmark home values followed suit. All three markets hit a turning point as spring arrived.

Benchmark home value had increased only minimally in South Frontenac and reached it’s peak in March, just as inventory levels and the time it took for homes to sell were increasing. The market quickly adjusted itself with lower price points. By the end of spring, sales volume was keeping pace with the number of new listings, and homes started to sell more quickly. Spring adjustments led to a busier July market, deferring the summer market lull into August... but not too deeply, more homes still sold than came on the market during August.

Central Frontenac benchmark home value also peaked during the spring however, a little later and much more acutely than in South Frontenac. Inventory levels had been quite low up until that point (only 13 homes on the market during March) giving sellers an edge even with the higher price points. But things were changing. Inventory started to pile up. By the end of April there were 39 homes on the market, and 55 in mid-June. By May, homes were taking much longer to sell. The market didn’t respond as quickly as it did in South Frontenac. There was limited data to support the changes so sellers weren’t keen to drop the prices so quickly. Price decreases did begin to happen towards the end of May and into June, once it was more apparent that the market had changed. And it worked. Mostly. Temporarily. The market picked up during June and into July, though not enough for inventory levels to stabilize. By mid-August, there were 70 homes for sale in Central Frontenac and the market had slowed hard for the summer. More price reductions occurred in a too late attempt to improve sales through August.

The market in North Frontenac was busier than last year right through May. More homes sold. Inventory was low. There were only 11 homes on the market in March. The market started subtly lagging during April as homes took longer to sell but inventory remained low until the end of May when the number of homes for sale increased to 32. Price points didn’t change much as sales volume through May was higher than last year. Benchmark home value for North Frontenac climbed through the spring and peaked in June, which was when the market changes started to become more noticeable. Inventory was accumulating. There were 43 homes on the market by July. Homes were taking even longer to sell. Prices finally adjusted and the market started to correct itself through July. Sales picked up a little during August, and the time it took for those homes to sell was significantly improved. Inventory however was still increasing, so the market hadn’t entirely balanced itself out yet.

Benchmark values can take time to come down in smaller markets. Sufficient data needs to be collected, and that takes longer with lower sales volumes. Also, because of the lower sales volume and limited data available, smaller markets generally have delayed responses to slowing- which is clearly what happened in Central and North Frontenac this year. Eventually though, prices do align with the market, demand returns, and the market stabilizes at lower values. This seems to be where we’re at now. As of September 1st inventory began to decline instead of rise in Central and North Frontenac, which implies the markets are stabilizing. It’s quite likely that the whole process of the market shifts has yet to be reflected in their hpis and that the full story of benchmark values for the year in these townships has yet to unfold.

This year’s market has been marked by uncertainty, uneven rhythms, and unexpected shifts. While overall sales data looks similar to last year on paper, the actual experience for buyers and sellers has felt very different. Economic pressures, changing buyer behaviour, and delayed adjustments in the smaller markets contributed to rapid surges and sharp slowdowns that felt very unpredictable. Heading out of August, signs point to benchmark values finding their footings in more moderate numbers as the smaller township markets stabilize. The Frontenac County market appears to have found it’s balance overall and as fall approaches, conditions look promising for a customarily busy next few months.

(information is based on MLS system data owned by the Kingston and Area Real Estate Association 2024 and 2025).