Jeff Green | Feb 19, 2020


Watson and Associates, a Mississauga based economic consulting firm, completed a population study for Frontenac County in 2014, and this week they brought an update to that study, a projection of population and employment outcomes for Frontenac County municipalities until 2046.

The 2014 study was hindered by the suspension of the long-term census in Canada, which was replaced by a survey in 2011. For that reason, other sources of data were used for the 2014 study, but the current study is based on the 2016 census.

The study projects that the permanent resident population in Frontenac County will grow by a rate of 0.7% annually between 2016 and 2046. In 2016 the permanent resident population was 27,200 and it is projected to rise to 33,200, a growth rate that is higher than the City of Kingston but lower than the national average. The population increase for seasonal residents is projected to be lower, partially because the study predicts that there will be a number of seasonal residents who will become permanent residents. In terms of total population (seasonal plus permanent), it is expected to reach 62,900 in 2046, up from 54,700 in 2016, an increased of 8,200. That will mean that permanent residents, who made up just a hair under 50% of the total in 2016, will inch ahead by 2046, to 53%.

The bulk of the permanent resident population increase (80%), is expected to occur in South Frontenac, along with 11% in Frontenac Islands, aided by the advent of a dual ferry service, with Central Frontenac (5%) and North Frontenac (3%) lagging. The increase in seasonal residents is projected to be more or less evenly split between North, Central and South Frontenac.

Tied in with all this is another factor, ageing. In 2016, 21% of the county population was over 65, and that is projected to rise to 35% by 2046. By 2036, the 55+ cohort is projected to reach 47%.

“Looking forward, this is anticipated to place increasing demand on the need for seniors’ housing, affordable housing, as well as community and social services to support Frontenac County’s growing seniors’ population,” said the study.

The job picture is expected to change as well. In 2016, about 5,400 people were employed in Frontenac County, and that is projected to increase to 7,000 by 2046. While retail and tourist related employment will be part of that increase, much of it is expected to come from home-based businesses.

Aside from its projections about future growth, the study provides some interesting information about employment changes between 2001 and 2016. It found that Frontenac County residents continue to travel for work. Seventeen per cent of residents stayed in Frontenac County for work in 2016, down from 19% in 2001. Most go to Kingston (65% in 2016, down from 69% in 2001). While less people were travelling to Kingston, more were travelling elsewhere, 6% went to L&A County in both censuses, but in 2016 7% went to Leeds Grenville, and 4% to Hastings County, both of which were not even listed as work destinations in 2001.

In her report to Council on the results of the study, Megan Ruekwald, manager of community planning, said that the data in a study like this one should be updated on a regular basis in order to ensure its usefulness as a planning document.

“Regular updates to the projections ensure that county and township policy and operational decisions are based on technical projections for population, housing and employment. Future updates to the study will capture changes in policy and infrastructure that may result in alterations to the forecast … Regular updates to the study also inform Council on changing demographics and economic conditions at the provincial and regional scale.”

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