What the winter may hold for us

Jeff Green | Nov 18, 2020

For the moment, we remain in a sweet spot as far as COVID-19 is concerned in Frontenac County.

Our current case count is 0, and our total case count of 17 cases over the entire pandemic is about 0.2% of the caseload in 9.5% of the Ontario average (per capita).8.4% of the Canadian average, and 0.2% of the United States average.

If Frontenac County had the same death rate of the rest of Canada, 9 of us would have died from COVID. If we had the Ontario death rate, 6 of us would have died. If we had the same death rate as the United States, 19 would have died.

If the entire Kingston Frontenac Lennox and Addington region is considered, the figures are 8 times as high. If we were at the Ontario rate, 48 people would have died, 72 if we were at the Canadian rate. And the average region with a population of 200,000 in the United States has seen 151 deaths from COVID-19

This speaks both to how fortunate we have been and to the effectiveness of the measures we have taken.

As other parts of the province move towards further restrictions, we are again lucky that the restrictions in Ontario have been put in place on a regional basis. Our ability to work and live in a more normal fashion than is the case in other parts of the province is based on that framework. But that all may change in the coming days and weeks as restrictions aimed at slowing the second wave of the pandemic come into effect. Province-wide restrictions are always a possibility to discourage people from travelling to less restrictive jurisdictions when their communities are partially or entirely shut down.

And while cases in the Frontenac County and Lennox and Addington have remained very rare, the case numbers in Kingston are on the rise. There were 36 active cases as of Monday (November 16) and the Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, said to expect more transmission this week. He also indicated that, if it was up to him the region would now be in the yellow caution zone instead of the green go zone, but that the province makes those determinations.

Restrictions on restaurants and health clubs and other commercial activity, only kick in when the orange and red zones are reached, so the Kingston economy may indeed be spared that eventuality, but it may not.

Even if we assume that the Ontario governments maintains its commitment to a regional response, there is no chance that Frontenac County will be uncoupled from Kingston, nor would it make sense to consider that, given the traffic down Perth Road and Highway 38 each morning as Frontenac County workers head to their jobs in Kingston.

So, while we have been spared the worst of COVID impacts in Frontenac County until now, and many of us have established a ‘new normal’ throughout the summer and early fall, the winter will likely be more difficult and restrictive.

As or readers know, the pre-Christmas bustle of community events has been severely curtailed, and the family gatherings around the holidays will not be recommended this year.

On the bright side people are continuing to work and schools have remained open and thus far, it has not led to outbreaks in our region.

If that changes it will be a dark winter indeed.

(At the Frontenac News, we are happy to do our part to keep people informed, and we will be expanding our Christmas coverage this year to include more recipes, stories and pictures in the weeks preceding Christmas. We are calling on readers to send us memories of challenging Christmases from the past, as well as recipes and other messages of interest to our readers. We will be running our annual children’s drawing context as well this year. We will be contacting the schools, but are also inviting direct submissions from readers. We will arrange for curbside drop-off at our office next week. And in a addition we are inviting adults to submit drawings for out first adult drawing contest on a Christmas or seasonal theme. Humour is encouraged in all Christmas submissions this year.)

Finally, thanks to our advertisers, we are happy to inform our readers that we will be making donations of $300 to the Sydenham, Sharbot Lake and Arden Legions on behalf of the Frontenac News and our advertisers. The money comes from 50% of the price of the ads that ran as part of our Remembrance Day supplement on November 5th.

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