Dr. Guan - cautious optimism on several fronts

Jun 23, 2021

Dr. Hugh Guan, the interim Medical Officer of Health for Kingston Frontenac Lennox and Addington, shared some good news in his first media roundup last Thursday (June 17).

“Everyone is hearing the same phrase from me these days,” he said. “I say that I am very cautiously optimistic about the path that we are on regarding COVID.

His optimism came from a few sources. At that time, there were only 3 active cases in the region, of which two were longer haul patients, who were still in hospital, after contracting the virus 2 months ago.

“Our local positivity rate is very low, our cases per 100,000 are very, very low. We are well within the former Green Zone, and we just passed a milestone for vaccination, with 75% of the adult population having had their first dose, and our second dose rate is climbing and will climb further with the provincial announcement today about eligibility,” he said.

As Dr. Guan was speaking, he was informed that the province was opening up the central booking system on Monday, June 21, to anyone who had been vaccinated on or before May 9th, and would be opening the system up to all Ontarians over 18 on June 28.

Those who took a Pfizer or Moderna shot will be able to book a second dose of either vaccine, 28 days after receiving their first dose. Those who had a first dose of AstraZeneca, can book any of the 3 approved vaccines, 8 weeks after their first dose.

“MRNA vaccines are truly interchangeable, take the second dose as soon as you can,” he said.

He also reported some good news, based on research into the COVID variant that is of most concern in Ontario at the moment, the so-called Delta variant.

With more research, it now appears that even though one dose may not prevent symptomatic illness from the Delta variant, it is still quite effective against hospitalisation and death. Of course we still recommend a two dose vaccination, but this information makes me cautiously optimistic that most of our population is now protected against the most serious consequences of the virus.”

When asked about his views on travelling to other parts of Ontario, now that the infection rates are falling, Dr. Guan tipped towards caution.

“The rate of infection in our region, including in Hastings, Prince Edward, and Lanark-Leeds Grenville, is among the lowest, if not the lowest in the province,” he said, “so I think we can travel freely in southeastern Ontario, but the rates are still high in the hotspots, so it is best to stay within the greater region.”

He also said that the vaccine supply is set to increase, with a steady supply of Pfizer continuing to arrive and an increase in the availability of Moderna.

“We are looking at pop up clinics, more vaccines through our pharmacies, and more pop-up clinics with our primary care partners in the coming weeks,” he said.

Dr. Guan also said that as the region emerges from the pandemic, he “is looking forward to a new normal,” and starting to deal with other parts of the public health system that have been slowed down by pandemic effort, as well as providing support to the hospital sector as they deal with the surgical backlog that has become acute.

After the media call on June 17, the 7 day COVID positivity rate in KFL&A, dropped to 0 cases for the first time since last summer. But there were 7 cases stemming from testing over the weekend, demonstrating that the virus is still active in the region.

As of June 21, there were 9 active cases in the region, a 7 day case rate of 3.8 cases per 100,000 people, and the positive testing rate was .030%, all numbers within the former green zone, but a definite uptick from the numbers on the preceding Friday.

The vaccination rate continues to climb, however. As of Monday, 75.1% of residents over 12 had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 22.5% had received 2 doses. Thanks to an aggressive campaign to immunise the 12-17 year old population since June 1st, those numbers are converging with the reporting of the vaccination rate among adults (over 18), which is now 76.2% for the first dose and 24% for two doses.

In fact, teenagers and younger adults have now been vaccinated at a higher rate than the millennial cohorts. 59% of 12-17 year olds, and 64% of 18-24 year olds have been vaccinated once, while just 55.3% of 25-29 year olds and 59.4% of 30-34 year olds have had a single dose.