Vaccination & Case Rates Rise in tandem

Jeff Green | May 05, 2021

The Province of Ontario kept to its commitment to let the public be the first to know about new policies regarding COVID-19 as soon as they have been determined last week.

In an illustration of how that works, Kingston Medical Officer of Health, Kieran Moore, who sits on the provincial vaccination task force, was on a media call on Thursday.  He was asked about his expectations regarding the expansion of the age groups who will be eligible for Pfizer vaccine from mass vaccination clinics.

He said that the province monitors the booking rate at mass clinics through its COVAX booking system, and expands the eligibility when vacancies start appearing in booking times.

“They have been going in 5-year increments, and I expect it will drop to 55 very soon, maybe early next week,” he said.

As Moore was speaking, the Minister of Health, Christine Elliott, was holding a province-wide briefing.

Not only did she announce that anyone over 55 would have access to the booking system the very next day, Minister Elliott also laid out an aggressive expansion schedule, which will result in all Ontarians over 16 being able to access the system by the end of May.

With a commitment of 30,000 doses in the KFL&A region in the month of May, Moore cautioned that while access to the booking system will expand quickly, access to an actual appointment may still lag, as appointments will only come available once there is certainty that a sufficient supply of vaccine will be available to fill all of the appointment slots.

Ontarians 50 and over, will be able to book appointments this week (the week of May 3), 40+ on the week of May 10, 30+ the week of May 17, and 18+ on the week of May 24.

The expansion of those who are eligible to book through the provincial system (which can be accessed at Ontario.ca or KFLAPH.ca) extends also to specific groups of workers. Teachers and education workers are now eligible to book, and essential workers, including those working in retail (grocery store, convenience store and restaurant workers among them), will be able to book an appointment starting next week (week of May 10).

While provincial and federal officials have made announcements about new supplies of both Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines that are scheduled to arrive in May, Dr. Moore said that at this point, it is only the Pfizer supply that he is certain will arrive between now and the end of May.

“It is important to remember that opening up the booking system to younger age groups does not mean there will be a vaccine available for them right away,” he said.

However, he said that if more vaccine does arrive, the mass clinics that KFL&A Public Health runs, as well as the primary care and pharmacy-based clinics, will ramp up to deliver vaccines to as many people, as quickly as possible.

“If we have the vaccine and bookings to put 5,000 shots in arms each day, we will open longer hours and bring more people to make that happen,” he said.

As of Monday, May 3, 43.6% of eligible residents in the KFL&A region had received at least one dose of vaccine. With current commitments of supply, Dr. Moore said that will rise to over 55% by the end of May.

And, in KFL&A at least, vaccine hesitancy does not seem to be an issue, at least among the aging population. 98% of those over 80, and 94% percent of those over 75, have had a shot. The percentage drops to 84.4% for residents aged 70-74, and 73.3% for those between 65 and 69. With a boost from the AstraZeneca pilot project, in local pharmacies in mid March, the rate of vaccination among those 60-64 is 84.2%.

“I am very pleased to say that over 80% of people who are over 60 in our region have had at least one dose of vaccine,” Moore said.

The numbers drop significantly for the under 60 population who have had limited access to vaccines so far. 

19 confirmed new cases were announced in KFL&A on May 3rd, one of the highest daily totals in the entire pandemic. 

“Our case-load continues to be concerning,” said Dr. Moore, “particularly this far into a stay-at-home order. If the order ended now, we would be in the provincial Orange Zone, headed towards the Red Zone, when our goal has been to come out of the stay-at-home order on May 20 in the Green Zone. And the cases are spread out all across the region. These variants want to spread, and we need to be very careful now. We have seen cases related to small gatherings, bonfires, and travel.”

He stressed the need to restrict travel. 

“The case rate is much, much higher in places like Toronto and Ottawa, even in Lanark, Leeds and Hastings, Prince Edward,” he said.

Dr. Moore's concern over the impact of social gatherings on the spread of COVID, extended to a question about whether he thought golf courses should be opened.

“It would send the wrong message, in my view. If we are supposed to stay home and only socialise with members of our own family, how would it look to have a golf course full of people from different households, playing, and socialising afterwards.”