Feb 16, 2012


The first results of the 2011 census don't paint the rosiest of pictures for future growth in Frontenac County.

All three landlocked Frontenac County townships saw a decrease in population over the five years since the 2006 census, while Frontenac Islands saw the slimmest of increases, just 2 people or 0.1%. The most dramatic decrease was in North Frontenac, where the population dropped by 2.6%, from 1904 in 2006 to 1842 in 2011. Central Frontenac did not fare much better, a drop of 2.3%, from 5,665 in '06 to 5,556 in '011. Even South Frontenac, which saw robust growth between 2001 and 2006, lost 0.6% of its population, from 18,227 in '06 to 18,113 in 2007. All in all, 283 less people lived year round in Frontenac County in 2011 than in 2006, a decrease of 1.1%.

The trends in Frontenac County were consistent with those in neighbouring municipalities. Addington Highlands saw a marginal increase of 20 people or 0.8%, from 2512 in 2006 to 2532 in 2011. Lanark Highlands did not fare as well, seeing a decrease of of 1%, from 5180 in '06 to 5128 in '011. Tay Valley saw a decrease of 1.1%, from 5634 in '06 to 5180 in '011.

The town of Perth also saw a 1.1% population decrease.

The City of Kingston, however, has had a healthy increase in population over the last 5 years, with growth of over 5%.

Census information does not include the seasonal population in any of these districts, which can range from about 40% of the population in South Frontenac to almost 80% in North Frontenac.

While the trends may be disappointing for townships such as North and Central Frontenac and Lanark Highlands, they are not far off from some of the projections that have been used by municipal planners for those townships over the last few years.

For South Frontenac, the projections have all assumed continued modest to robust population growth, so the census information will come as shock. For example, one of the concerns expressed in the South Frontenac strategic plan that was completed just months ago, was about managing growth, and keeping increases in the demand for services from outstripping the townships infrastructure. Suddenly, those good new problems seem like yesterdays news.

The information about the age of populations throughout the country was not released in this first data-call from the 2011 census. That information will be released on May 29, and could give municipal politicians and planners even more food for thought as they look forward to a less populated future.

 

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