Another Sad Sap Story

Jeff Green | Feb 28, 2024

It started in late January. A friend(?) of mine leaned over to me while we were sitting in a restaurant and said, “have you tapped yet?”

I was not ready to hear that.

I said I was not going to be jumping at a January thaw, even in an El Nino winter 20 years into the impact of climate change on the syrup season.

“I heard that the big producers are all tapping,” they responded.

That I did not believe, and from the few people that I know who are really in the syrup industry and not small scale hobbiests, they may have been checking their bush and starting to get ready, but they were not getting into production.

But it turns out that in Vermont, where the syrup season is earlier and climate change has already had a larger impact, there are some producers who make syrup as they can from late December on.

Even though maple syrup is the simplest food processing industry there is, concentrating sugar from 2-3% up to 40% by removing water from sap, the technology in the maple syrup industry has ensured ever larger amounts of pure maple syrup hit the global market every year, and the industry is very resilient.

The onset of technology means that, unlike myself a few dozen buckets and spiles spread around a rural property, they are not completely dependent on the 'goldilocks' weather (+5 at night and +5 in the day being optimal) that a steady supply of cold, clear sap.

As long as their is some freeze thaw cycle in play, and the trees don't go into bud too early, the Ontario and Quebec industries will make syrup, and if the weather is good establish operations are able to make record amounts due to ambition, efficiency and investments in technology.

This year could be a nightmare for the bucket and spile crowd, and a challenge for all producers.

The concensus was to get started last week, or over the weekend, still in February. But with the forecast it seemed like this was the time, with the feeling that by mid-March the trees might already be in bus and the season gone.

This week is certainly a challenge. The sap should run early in the week, but a warm Tuesday night followed by buckets of rain and a major freeze up will put an end to that. Later in the week it will be warm day and night, but the sap may run on Friday and Saturday before it gets very warm into next week.

Later next week looks better from here, unless the nighttime temperatures moderate a bit. The next two weeks will determine the season. If they are seasonal, all will be well, but if they we get spring weather in mid-March it will not be.

Commercial operators should be able to hit 50% of a normal year as things stand, but hobbiest may be hit hard. I might be shopping for syrup.

The real concern, however, is not the spring of 2024, but the impact of climate change on maple trees themselves, particularly sugar maples. They have a competitive advantage in cooler climates because they do better in ground that faces heavy frost than other deciduous trees. If that stops happening, not only does that advantage dissappear, but exposure to pests and disease that maples are less prepared for than trees better adapted to warmer climates could also be a factor.

These are already real concerns in places like Vermont, which is not only the largest syrup producing state in the country, but also the state that has warmed the most in the first phase of climate change.

Just like the goldilocks weather that has made maple an iconic taste in this part of the world for millennia, the climate has been just right for sugar maples. Maples thrive in between the cold climates to the north which are suited to boreal forest species, and the warm climates to the south where warmer deciduous species dominate the forest. If we lose that climate, we will lose the maples as well, and that loss is greater than just the loss of a product, as maple syrup runs to the core of our identity, something elemental to our culture, something that indigenous and settler populations can connect to in a similar way.