You can prod, but you can’t force anyone to get vaccinated.

Jeff Green | Aug 25, 2021

No one wants to say it, but the delta variant has shown some vaccine resistance, and that is why governments and public health officials, alike, are wringing their hands about the people who are choosing to refuse a vaccination.

Two months ago this week, during a zoom media briefing, just after he had taken on the interim role as Medical Officer of Health for Kingston, Frontenac Lennox and Addington, Dr, Hugh Guan was asked what percentage of the eligible population needs to be vaccinated to prevent a 4th wave of COVID in the region.

He said that question was still being debated, but 85-90% of those over 12 with at least one dose and 80-85% with two doses was the number that was being bandied about. Since then, the Frontenac News has been covering the progress in this region, towards those goals, and we have seen how elusive they have become. 

Two things are now clear. No matter how hard the Kingston Frontenac Public Health (KFLAPH), and its partners, and the local paramedics and family docs work at it, the ceiling in our region, seems to be 85% first dose and 80% fully vaccinated.

As of this Monday (August 23rd), at the current pace of vaccination, the first dose target of 85% will be hit by September 16, and the second dose of 80%, about a week later. The higher end of the targets are not going to be reached at all. 

But the 4th wave is already here anyway, and with school starting in two weeks, bringing children under 12, who are not eligible for vaccination, together five days a week, at the same time as people start to move indoors, it is now clear we have missed the opportunity to vaccinate our way out of COVID this year.

1/3 of Ontarians are not vaccinated, but they represented 2/3 of the new COVID cases on Monday (August 23), as well as 78% of hospitalisations, and 80%
of patients requiring intensive care for COVID. Those figures demonstrate that the risk of contracting COVID is higher for those who are not vaccinated.

Since almost 1/3 of those who are not vaccinated are children under 12, who we know are the group that is the least susceptible to COVID, the risk to those who are not vaccinated is even higher than the above statistics indicate. 

Further, we know COVID hits older people harder, requiring hospitalisation more frequently. It is not surprising, therefore, that the older people are, the more likely they are to have been vaccinated. 

As of Tuesday of this week, 40 vaccinated people were in hospital in Ontario. We don’t know their ages, but even if all of them are over 50 years old, it is 40 people out of a population of over 5 million. Vaccination mitigates the risk of hospitalisation, pretty effectively, but does not eliminate it.

So, the 4th wave is upon us, our vaccination program has stalled, schools are opening in two weeks, the delta variant is able, not often but sometimes, to “breakthrough” the vaccine, and 'winter is coming'.

The debate that is now raging over vaccine mandates is considerably different from the debate over mandatory masking, because a vaccine is a substance that is injected into our bodies and a mask is removable.. Information about the risks that are involved has been made available, according to Canada health protocols.

People must have the right to refuse a vaccination, we can’t force people to take injections if they don’t want them.

However, given that those who are not vaccinated now represent a risk to others, it is reasonable to take steps to protect those who have been vaccinated from exposure to those who haven't.

Not allowing unvaccinated people into an NHL hockey game or a pop concert without a recent negative COVID test seems reasonable. Hockey games and concerts cost money to attend, so they are already restricted to people who can afford a ticket anyway.

Access to school, work, and necessary services are a different matter, however. In those cases, it’s all about the work environment.

If a teacher in an elementary school is unvaccinated by choice, and is teaching children who are not eligible for a vaccine, that teacher poses an extra risk to the children, and the families of those children as well.

Mitigating risks to students is a core responsibility for teachers, so it is reasonable to expect teachers to take steps to ensure they do not pose those risks. 

It is incumbent on an unvaccinated teacher to come up with an alternative to vaccination, and on their employers to provide the teacher with as many options as possible. This could mean teaching virtual classes, it could mean taking on administrative duties outside the class or it could mean requiring them to take a leave of absence.

It is tempting to say, 'why don't they take the jab and be done with it', but that is not the point.

We need to protect the right of people to have sovereignty over their own bodies, and that means not punishing people for their decisions, while making sure their rights do not result in risks to the rights of others.

As a society, we are in the midst of fumbling our way through this quagmire. We expect our governments to be as clear as they can be, to protect us as best they can, without violating any of our rights.

When our old friend Dr. Kieran Moore accepted the job as Medical Officer of Health for Ontario, just two and a half months ago, he said his major goal was to make sure that by the end of his 5-year term, all the necessary plans and protocols will be in place for the next pandemic. That goal is certainly on the back burner, for now.  His first year, at least, is being devoted to dealing with the continuing challenges of COVID, and the need to balance pressures coming from all sides.

On the bright side, we come into the fall of 2021 with a vaccine that works, in most cases, and although Delta is able to break through, it is only rarely.

As tired as we all are, the winter of 21-22 should be more ‘normal’ than the winter of 20-21. . Maybe we should focus on that.