Yes Virginia, there really is a ministry of middle-class prosperity in Canada

Jeff Green | Dec 11, 2019

At first, I thought it was some kind of an almost funny joke, naming a minister of prosperity.

Why not a ministry of magic instead. We could all use some more magic in our lives, to be sure.

Aside from the awkward sound of it, there are technical questions about this ministry, the first being ‘what is the middle class?’. The new minister, Ottawa Vanier MP Mona Fortier, told the CBC that she defines the middle class as “people who feel they can afford their way of life,” people who “you know, send their kids to play hockey or even have different activities. It’s having the cost of living where you can do what you want with your families.”

This is nor very comforting to skeptic. The minister herself does not know precisely who her ministry is supposed to serve.

Minister Fortier could have captured the truth about what the idea behind her ministry really is if she said she was the “minister of more money for most people” with most people is defined as everyone except the very rich and the poor.

The closest thing to a definition of the middle class that I have found, in an admittedly limited search, is based on dividing income into five brackets of 20% increments, and defining the middle class as those who fall in the middle three brackets.

By that definition, you still have to look at it all in terms of regions, because the cost of living varies by geography, and there is an urban/rural divide as well. Then there is the difference between ‘income of families’ and ‘income of unattached individuals’ to use Stats Can catchphrases. An individual making $45,000 might make the grade, a family, not so much. On the high end, a family making over $150,000 in some parts of the country would be upper instead of middle, but in some parts a family needs to hit the $200,000 mark to slip into the upper crust.

Essentially, the Trudeau government seems to think of the ‘middle class’ as a self-defining group, and apparently 70% of Canadians (68% of Ontarians) consider themselves to be part of the middle class. Some of those people might fit the statistical definition of the middle class, and some don’t. The ministry is therefore really about signalling to 70% of the population that the government is so concerned about their ‘prosperity’ that it is willing to spend their money setting up an office devoted to it, with staff, furniture and computers/cellphones etc. Middle class prosperity is so important, in fact, that it even warrants a minister and a limousine (with driver).

To be fair to the Trudeau government, just for a minute, during their first mandate they identified the reduction of poverty as a long-term goal, and Stats Can has developed data on poverty rates. And those rates have dropped in recent years.

As part of that effort, statistical work has been done to identify the poverty line in a systematic way across the country. It is based on how much it costs for food, housing, transportation, etc, and it is the line minimum that a family or an individual would need to comfortably cover all those costs.

According to Stats Canada, 9.5% of Canadian families were living under the poverty line in 2017, the latest year for which figures are available. The income level that defines poverty is based on 2015 incomes, so it would be up to 10% higher now, and it also varies from region to region. The national average for the poverty line, was $37,542 in 2015 dollars for a family of 4, half of that for individuals living on their own. With four years of inflation factored in, it is about $40,000 for a family or 4 in 2019, and $20,000 for an individual. In Frontenac County, where costs are lower than the national average, it might be a bit lower than that.

There has to be a gap between the poverty line and the middle-class line. Families earning $60,000 per year or less, and individuals making $30,000 or less, are by no means middle class in Canada in 2019. These families still drive their kids to hockey, but the money they spend on hockey hurts them, making it difficult to avoid debt. This group, up to a quarter of the families in the country, are those who are one or two setbacks away from slipping towards or over the poverty line. A cut in income, a layoff or an illness that would be manageable for those with a true middle-class income, can be devastating to this population.

This population will benefit from the cuts in income tax rates that have been announced, but only marginally because they are already paying less income tax than those with much higher incomes. Meanwhile, inevitable increases in the price of fuel, food, housing, and municipal taxes all hit this group much harder than those with higher incomes.

As the government devotes their attention to helping those who are doing well to do better, can they not spare a thought for those of us who are struggling to sustain what we have. All of the parties, even the NDP, love the middle class.

It would be really magical if they showed some love for the rest of us as well.