| May 05, 2011


Editorial by Jeff Green

At the outset of the federal election campaign that just ended, I made a call to a local NDP riding association member whom I hadn't talked to in quite a while. I was setting up all-candidates’ meetings at the time. We spent a few minutes talking about the way the campaign was shaping up.

I suggested that if it became clear during the campaign that the Liberals were not going anywhere, there might be a bump in support for Jack Layton and the New Democrats.

“I don't think that will happen,” he said, “I think Ignatieff will prove to be competent and people will stick with him. I think he will do well.”

Well, it didn't turn out that way. And before anyone thinks I had any idea what was going to happen, I should add that I was just musing at the time. At most I was only thinking the NDP might get their vote to the 20-25 per cent range and maybe win 50 – 60 seats, with perhaps three of them in Québec.

No one predicted the “Orange Crush” in Québec, including the most wild-eyed NDP dreamers, and a 31% share of the national vote for the NDP was equally unthinkable five weeks ago.

The Conservatives winning a majority was always a distinct possibility, and in fact that will have more impact on the country than the change in the opposition benches.

With 40% of the vote, the Conservative Party now has 100% of parliamentary power in this country. That power is checked only by the judiciary.

That's the way it was under the Chrétien Liberals, and that's the way it will be for four years under the Harper Conservatives. The other control there is on government policy is that now that they have power, the idea of a dynasty is already taking hold. Stephen Harper wants to establish his party as the 'natural governing party', to use an often repeated phrase.

But to do this he must go slowly, bringing the entire country with him, incrementally, to the low tax, small government, socially conservative agenda that his party stands for.

In terms of the political direction of the country for the next four years, that is what we will be seeing, as the parties representing 60% of the voters figure out how to put up a fight the next time around.

Looking at our own LFL&A riding, it is hard not to feel for David Remington of the Liberals. He ran much harder, and much longer, than any other candidate, including the incumbent Scott Reid.

Remington said that he was convinced this is a 'winnable riding' for the Liberal Party, which certainly was not the case this time around. Facing a historic collapse of the Liberal vote across the country, Remington finished third, receiving almost 2,000 fewer votes this time around than he did in 2008, when he finished a distant second.

Doug Smyth, for the NDP, received 5,000 more votes than the NDP candidate, Sandra Willis, did in 2008. This, in spite of that fact that Smyth was only chosen as a candidate a week into the campaign; that he missed the third week of the campaign because of a previously scheduled business trip; and then was kept out of the campaign for another week due to an eye illness. So, with a negligible campaign at best, he received over 20% of the vote, to Remington's 16.8%.

Life might indeed be fair, but politics isn't.

Scott Reid may not have received Alberta-style Conservative results, but at over 57%, more than he has ever received, and a margin of over 20,000 votes, the seat is safer than ever.

But another lesson of this election is that seats are only safe until they are not safe. Gilles Duceppe won by about 20,000 votes last time, his seventh consecutive election in the Papineau riding, but he lost handily this time around and is out of politics.

While Ontario has never been as cavalier as Québec in the way they shift their votes in federal elections, there was a time not too long ago when all 103 Ontario ridings were held by the Liberals. This time the Liberals won 11, including Kingston and the Islands, the only red dot in a sea of blue in eastern Ontario.

So is “don't bother” the message for the David Remingtons of this world? Not exactly, but it turns out that, more than hard work, timing is the key element in politics.

For Remington to win, two things would have to happen. The first is riding redistribution. As long as his home base of Napanee is lumped with Lanark, Remington will be an also-ran. But if L&A were cut loose to join Prince Edward and Hastings counties, the situation might change.

The second element is a wave from outside. A red surge, or an orange-red/reddish orange surge would certainly make a difference.

In any event we have until October 19, 2015 to wait for the next federal election.

We do have one more election coming this year, a provincial one in which LFL&A promises to be a key battleground, targeted by the Liberal and Conservative Parties. The campaign between incumbent Randy Hillier and Liberal contender Bill MacDonald is already under way, and promises to be a hard-fought battle between two aggressive, scrappy politicians.

I happened to see Randy Hillier at the garden centre at Canadian Tire in Perth last weekend. He was buying a shovel. We talked about the federal election and I suggested to him that Dalton McGuinty would be happy if Harper won a majority, alluding to the old adage that Ontario voters would prefer a Liberal government in Toronto if there was a Conservative government in Ottawa, and vice versa.

Randy Hillier did not agree. What he said about my suggestion can't be printed here.

I think the provincial race will be a lot of fun.

 

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