Reid Survives Early Scare to Win LFK Riding Easily

Jeff Green | Oct 21, 2015

The Liberal sweep of Monday's federal election had an impact in the new Lanark Frontenac Kingston (LFK) riding, but the Conservative roots of the riding shone through in the end, returning Scott Reid to Parliament with a comfortable 8,000 vote advantage over the second place candidate, Liberal Phil Archambault.

With 48% of the vote, Scott Reid did not achieve an absolute majority for the first time in the last four elections. In 2011, he received 57% of the vote in the former Lanark Frontenac Lennox and Addington riding, which makes up 79% of the new LFK riding. Ontario-wide, the Conservative Party vote dropped by 9%, from 44% in 2011 to 35% in 2015.

The night began well for Liberal candidate Phil Archambault. The electoral map was lit up in red after he took a 100 vote lead over Scott Reid in early results, but the tide turned in later voting, and he received 19,325 votes in the end (34%) to Reid's 27,399 (48%). Four years ago the Liberal candidate received only 16% of the vote in the former riding, so the Archambault campaign more than doubled the Liberal vote from 2011, mirroring an increase in the share of votes that went to the Liberals in Ontario. The party received over 45% of Ontario votes this time as compared to just 25% in 2011

John Fenik suffered a fate similar to other NDP candidates across the country, as the party slipped from Official Opposition status with over 100 seats, to 3rd party status with only 44 seats and less than 20% of the popular vote across the county. In 2011 in the previous Lanark Frontenac Lennox and Addington riding, the NDP candidate finished second with 20% of the vote. Fenik received 8,073 votes in the new riding, 14% of the votes cast. That number is still higher than the party's numbers in the 2008 and 2006 elections, which did not feature the fabled Orange Wave of the 2011 campaign. Ontario-wide, the NDP vote dropped from 25% in 2011 to 16.5% this time.

Anita Payne of the Green Party received 2,025 votes, 3.5% of the votes cast in LFK, a marginally lower percentage than the 4% showing in 2011.

Voter turnout in Lanark Frontenac Kingston was 72.6%, which was 4 percentage points higher than the national average and 7 percentage points higher than the 65.5% turnout in 2011.

In the new Hastings Lennox and Addington riding (HL&A), Liberal Mike Bossio and Conservative Daryl Kramp, the incumbent from the Hastings part of the new riding, seemed headed for a dead heat until the final returns came in.

Eventually, Bossio won the seat by 363 votes, 20,813 votes (42.5%) over Kramp's 20,440 (42%). At one point, with over 95% of polls reporting, Bossio held a two vote margin, and with 96% of the votes in, Kramp had taken a four vote lead, but the last 4% of votes counted were in Liberal-friendly territory somewhere in the large riding, which includes Belleville and Napanee as well as Addington Highlands.

Daryl Kramp had won four elections in a row before his defeat last night. He was elected in Prince Edward Hastings in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011. However he has never fared well when his riding has included Lennox and Addington County. He tasted defeat in the former Hastings, Frontenac Lennox and Addington riding to the late Larry McCormick in 1997 and 2,000, when Kramp was a candidate for the Progressive Conservative Party.