Feature Article September 11, 2002
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Commentary - a year after September 11by David Brison As we approach the anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, the news media are now filled with accounts of the plans of the U.S. government to wage war on Iraq.
The U.S. administration seems intent on war with Iraq despite the opinion expressed by many, including our own Prime Minister and for the first time opposition within the U.S., that war with Iraq might further destabilize the world and contribute to, not reduce, terrorism and violence in the Arab world.
A critical consideration when deciding whether to wage war on Iraq is the experience in Afghanistan. The aims in both instances are similar: Prior to bombing Afghanistan, President Bush called for the removal of the ruling Taliban and the capture of bin Laden, either dead or alive. President Bush and Vice-President Cheney are talking now of a regime change in Iraq and although the dead or alive rhetoric hasnt been repeated for Saddam Hussein, that is almost certainly the intent.
The reasons for wanting to get both bin Laden and Hussein are similar. Bin Laden was directing a program of terrorism and Hussein is directing a program which is developing weapons of mass destruction including nuclear weapons. Removing the Taliban presumably did away with the safe haven which bin Laden was operating out of. Changing Husseins own regime will put an end to the development of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq at least that is the intent.
Was the war in Afghanistan a success? What has been learned that can be applied to Iraq?
One of the considerations prior to the bombing of Afghanistan was that many innocent civilians would be killed in the process of smoking out bin Laden and defeating the Taliban. This concern was strongly expressed by many I talked to in our readership area immediately after September 11.
Many innocent civilians have undoubtedly been killed in Afghanistan the best estimate is that the number now exceeds 3,000. In addition, the destruction of homes and the countryside has displaced many.
The reason for many of these deaths is the American policy of precision bombing. Precision bombing depends on local sources on the ground describing targets. In several documented instances, ground informants have given pilots the wrong targets sometimes deliberately so. In addition, it would appear that the amount of explosives dropped is often more than is necessary to destroy the intended target and civilian bystanders have been killed as a result.
Another source of innocent deaths has been the tendency for pilots to think they are being fired upon from the ground and then retaliate. One such incident was in Kakrak where 54 civilians were killed and at least 120 wounded. Villagers at two engagement parties apparently fired guns in the air and pilots thought they were being fired on and retaliated. Another instance of pilots thinking they were being fired on resulted in the death of four Canadian soldiers who were carrying out practice manoeuvres; life-threatening injuries to two more; and six either serious or very serious injuries.
The Taliban were removed. They were a very oppressive regime and the achievement of toppling them shouldnt be minimised. Bin Laden hasnt been found and apparently has found a safe haven elsewhere.
However, reports out of Afghanistan indicate that the government set up to replace the Taliban is in chaos and seemingly incapable of ruling. Also, Al Qaeda fighters are drifting back into the country.
The lesson learned from Afghanistan seems to be that a long-term plan for developing the country has to be in place if any significant long-term change is to take place. The US didnt have such a plan in place when they declared war and started bombing Afghanistan nor do they now.
How does all of this apply to Iraq? One thing is for sure many innocent civilians will be killed through precision bombing. Also, there are a large number of Kurds whose existence under the Hussein regime has always been precarious and they might be jeopardised by a US invasion.
Another critical question relates to the plans for the country if and when the Hussein regime is removed.
There are many more questions relating to the effect on the Arab world of the US acting unilaterally, as it has said it might.
Prime Minister Chrien has said that he is not convinced that a US war on Iraq is justified. Many other world leaders agree. The doubts raised by the war in Afghanistan at the very least call for a thorough discussion at the United Nations before unilateral action is taken by the Bush administration.
